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"The United States produces 41% of the world's corn and 38% of the world's soybeans, so any impact on US crop yields will have implications for world food supply. We pair a panel of county-level crop yields in the US with a fine-scale weather data set that incorporates the whole distribution of temperatures between the minimum and maximum within each day and across all days in the growing season. Yields increase in temperature until about 29C for corn, 30C for soybeans, and 32C for cotton, but temperatures above these thresholds become very harmful. The slope of the decline above the optimum is significantly steeper than the incline below it. The same nonlinear and asymmetric relationship is found whether we consider time series or cross-sectional variation in weather and yields. This suggests limited potential for adaptation within crop species because the latter includes farmers' adaptations to warmer climates and the former does not. Area-weighted average yields given current growing regions are predicted to decrease by 31-43% under the slowest warming scenario and 67-79% under the most rapid warming scenario by the end of the century"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
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Estimating the impact of climate change on crop yields: the importance of nonlinear temperature effects
2008, National Bureau of Economic Research
Electronic resource
in English
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Book Details
Edition Notes
Title from PDF file as viewed on 6/13/2008.
Includes bibliographical references.
Also available in print.
System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.
Mode of access: World Wide Web.
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- Created September 27, 2008
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December 22, 2020 | Edited by MARC Bot | import existing book |
July 29, 2012 | Edited by VacuumBot | Updated format '[electronic resource] :' to 'Electronic resource' |
December 15, 2009 | Edited by WorkBot | link works |
October 28, 2008 | Edited by ImportBot | Found a matching Library of Congress MARC record |
September 27, 2008 | Created by ImportBot | Imported from Library of Congress MARC record |