An edition of Macroeconomics and ARCH (2008)

Macroeconomics and ARCH

Macroeconomics and ARCH
James D. Hamilton, James D. Ha ...
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Last edited by MARC Bot
December 22, 2020 | History
An edition of Macroeconomics and ARCH (2008)

Macroeconomics and ARCH

"Although ARCH-related models have proven quite popular in finance, they are less frequently used in macroeconomic applications. In part this may be because macroeconomists are usually more concerned about characterizing the conditional mean rather than the conditional variance of a time series. This paper argues that even if one's interest is in the conditional mean, correctly modeling the conditional variance can still be quite important, for two reasons. First, OLS standard errors can be quite misleading, with a "spurious regression" possibility in which a true null hypothesis is asymptotically rejected with probability one. Second, the inference about the conditional mean can be inappropriately influenced by outliers and high-variance episodes if one has not incorporated the conditional variance directly into the estimation of the mean, and infinite relative efficiency gains may be possible. The practical relevance of these concerns is illustrated with two empirical examples from the macroeconomics literature, the first looking at market expectations of future changes in Federal Reserve policy, and the second looking at changes over time in the Fed's adherence to a Taylor Rule"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

Publish Date
Language
English

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Edition Availability
Cover of: Macroeconomics and ARCH
Macroeconomics and ARCH
2008, National Bureau of Economic Research
Electronic resource in English

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Book Details


Edition Notes

Title from PDF file as viewed on 7/23/2008.

Includes bibliographical references.

Also available in print.

System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Mode of access: World Wide Web.

Published in
Cambridge, MA
Series
NBER working paper series -- working paper 14151, Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research : Online) -- working paper no. 14151.

Classifications

Library of Congress
HB1

The Physical Object

Format
Electronic resource

ID Numbers

Open Library
OL17088501M
LCCN
2008610966

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History

Download catalog record: RDF / JSON / OPDS | Wikipedia citation
December 22, 2020 Edited by MARC Bot import existing book
July 31, 2012 Edited by VacuumBot Updated format '[electronic resource] /' to 'Electronic resource'
December 15, 2009 Edited by WorkBot link works
October 28, 2008 Edited by ImportBot Found a matching Library of Congress MARC record
September 27, 2008 Created by ImportBot Imported from Library of Congress MARC record