Commodity price shocks and the odds on fiscal performance

a structural VAR approach

Commodity price shocks and the odds on fiscal ...
Francis Y. Kumah, Francis Y. K ...
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Last edited by WorkBot
December 15, 2009 | History

Commodity price shocks and the odds on fiscal performance

a structural VAR approach

Unanticipated changes in commodity prices can generate significant movements in fiscal aggregates. This paper seeks to understand the dynamics of these fiscal movements in the context of transitory commodity price shocks using sample data from four CIS countries- two oil-producing and two non-oil commodity-intensive countries. It adopts a structural VAR approach and identifies the dynamic effects of commodity price shocks on fiscal performance under two broad tax regimes. Stochastic simulations indicate high probabilities of fiscal overperformance in the short term when commodity prices are high. These probabilities deteriorate significantly, however, in the long term after the transitory positive commodity price shock has dissipated, particularly when lax fiscal policy is adopted during the period of the price boom.

Publish Date
Language
English
Pages
34

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Edition Availability
Cover of: Commodity Price Shocks and the Odds on Fiscal Performance
Commodity Price Shocks and the Odds on Fiscal Performance
2005, International Monetary Fund
in English
Cover of: Commodity Price Shocks and the Odds on Fiscal Performance
Commodity Price Shocks and the Odds on Fiscal Performance
2005, International Monetary Fund
in English
Cover of: Commodity Price Shocks and the Odds on Fiscal Performance
Commodity Price Shocks and the Odds on Fiscal Performance
2005, International Monetary Fund
in English
Cover of: Commodity price shocks and the odds on fiscal performance
Commodity price shocks and the odds on fiscal performance: a structural VAR approach
2005, International Monetary Fund, Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
in English

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Book Details


Edition Notes

"August 2005."

Includes bibliographical references (p. 29-30).

Also available on the World Wide Web.

Published in
Washington, D.C
Series
IMF working paper -- WP/05/171

The Physical Object

Pagination
34 p. :
Number of pages
34

ID Numbers

Open Library
OL20240144M

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December 15, 2009 Edited by WorkBot link works
October 26, 2008 Created by ImportBot Imported from University of Toronto MARC record