Do energy prices respond to U.S. macroeconomic news? a test of the hypothesis of predetermined energy prices

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Do energy prices respond to U.S. macroeconomi ...
Lutz Kilian
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Last edited by MARC Bot
October 29, 2020 | History

Do energy prices respond to U.S. macroeconomic news? a test of the hypothesis of predetermined energy prices

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"Models that treat innovations to the price of energy as predetermined with respect to U.S. macroeconomic aggregates are widely used in the literature. For example, it is common to order energy prices first in recursively identified VAR models of the transmission of energy price shocks. Since exactly identifying assumptions are inherently untestable, this approach in practice has required an act of faith in the empirical plausibility of the delay restriction used for identification. An alternative view that would invalidate such models is that energy prices respond instantaneously to macroeconomic news, implying that energy prices should be ordered last in recursively identified VAR models. In this paper, we propose a formal test of the identifying assumption that energy prices are predetermined with respect to U.S. macroeconomic aggregates. Our test is based on regressing cumulative changes in daily energy prices on daily news from U.S. macroeconomic data releases. Using a wide range of macroeconomic news, we find no compelling evidence of feedback at daily or monthly horizons, contradicting the view that energy prices respond instantaneously to macroeconomic news and supporting the use of delay restrictions for identification"--Federal Reserve Board web site.

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Language
English

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Edition Notes

Title from PDF file as viewed on 6/22/2009.

Includes bibliographical references.

Also available in print.

System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Mode of access: World Wide Web.

Published in
Washington, D.C
Series
International finance discussion papers -- no. 957, International finance discussion papers (Online) -- no. 957.

Classifications

Library of Congress
HG3879

The Physical Object

Format
Electronic resource

ID Numbers

Open Library
OL23557772M
LCCN
2009656127

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Download catalog record: RDF / JSON / OPDS | Wikipedia citation
October 29, 2020 Edited by MARC Bot import existing book
August 4, 2012 Edited by VacuumBot Updated format '[electronic resource] /' to 'Electronic resource'
December 15, 2009 Edited by WorkBot link works
July 22, 2009 Created by ImportBot Imported from Library of Congress MARC record