Forecasting with measurement errors in dynamic models

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Forecasting with measurement errors in dynami ...
Richard Harrison
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December 13, 2020 | History

Forecasting with measurement errors in dynamic models

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"This paper explores the effects of measurement error on dynamic forecasting models. It illustrates a trade-off that confronts forecasters and policymakers when they use data that are measured with error. On the one hand, observations on recent data give valuable clues as to the shocks that are hitting the system and that will be propagated into the variables to be forecast. But on the other, those recent observations are likely to be those least well measured. The paper studies two classes of forecasting problem. The first class includes cases where the forecaster takes the coefficients in the data-generating process as given, and has to choose how much of the historical time series of data to use to form a forecast. We show that if recent data are sufficiently badly measured, relative to older data, it can be optimal not to use recent data at all. The second class of problems we study is more general. We show that for a general class of linear autoregressive forecasting models, the optimal weight to place on a data observation of some age, relative to the weight in the true data-generating process, will depend on the measurement error in that observation. We illustrate the gains in forecasting performance using a model of UK business investment growth"--Bank of England web site.

Publish Date
Publisher
Bank of England
Language
English

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Edition Availability
Cover of: Forecasting with measurement errors in dynamic models
Forecasting with measurement errors in dynamic models
2004, Bank of England
Electronic resource in English

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Book Details


Edition Notes

Includes bibliographical references.
Title from PDF file as viewed on 4/5/2005.
Also available in print.
System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.
Mode of access: World Wide Web.

Published in
London
Series
Working paper,, no. 237, Working paper (Bank of England : Online) ;, no.237.

Classifications

Library of Congress
HG186.G7

The Physical Object

Format
Electronic resource

ID Numbers

Open Library
OL3477520M
LCCN
2005617232

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Download catalog record: RDF / JSON / OPDS | Wikipedia citation
December 13, 2020 Edited by MARC Bot import existing book
July 29, 2012 Edited by VacuumBot Updated format '[electronic resource] /' to 'Electronic resource'
December 12, 2009 Edited by WorkBot link works
October 31, 2008 Edited by ImportBot add URIs from original MARC record
April 1, 2008 Created by an anonymous user Imported from Scriblio MARC record