MARC Record from harvard_bibliographic_metadata

LEADER: 02545nam a22003738a 4500
001 009013778-7
005 20040419172157.0
008 020702s2002 caua b 000 0 eng
010 $a 2002026577
020 $a0833032062
035 0 $aocm50129326
040 $aDLC$cDLC
042 $apcc
043 $aap-----$an-us---
050 00 $aDS326$b.B96 2002
082 00 $a953.6$221
100 1 $aByman, Daniel,$d1967-
245 14 $aThe Persian Gulf in the coming decade :$btrends, threats, and opportunities /$cDaniel L. Byman, John R. Wise.
260 $aSanta Monica, Calif. :$bRand,$c2002.
300 $axvii, 83 p. :$bill. ;$c23 cm.
500 $a"MR-1528."
500 $a"Prepared for the United States Air Force."
504 $aIncludes bibliographical references.
520 $aThis study examines likely challenges to U.S. interests in the Persian Gulf, identifies key uncertainties and trends, and assesses the implications of those trends for the United States. The authors find there is a declining threat from Iraq and Iran, with shifting military balances and weakness, although weapons of mass destruction (WMD) remain a concern. Internal threats to regional partners include a fraying social contract-unemployment is growing and governments are less able to provide services. There is potential for unrest and sudden large refugee flows. Economic problems contribute to limited momentum for reform, and the U.S. presence and policies may exacerbate problems. Possibilities for dramatic regime change in Iraq or Iran are weighed. The authors conclude that while many trends in the region are positive, daunting problems remain. The United States should focus less on the conventional military threat and more on the risk of WMD and possible instability or domestic unrest among several Gulf partners, and attempt to minimize any deleterious effects of the U.S. military presence in the region. (The analysis was completed before the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.).
505 0 $aCh. 1. Introduction -- Ch. 2. The Declining Conventional Threat from Iran and Iraq -- Ch. 3. Internal Threats to Regional Partners -- Ch. 4. Conclusions -- App. Military Strength in the Gulf States.
651 0 $aPersian Gulf Region.
651 0 $aPersian Gulf Region$xRelations$zUnited States.
651 0 $aUnited States$xRelations$zPersian Gulf Region.
710 2 $aRand Corporation.
710 2 $aProject Air Force (U.S.)
700 1 $aWise, John R.
710 1 $aUnited States.$bAir Force.
988 $a20030108
906 $0DLC