MARC record from Internet Archive

LEADER: 05633cam 22008894a 4500
001 ocm49902187
003 OCoLC
005 20200521124725.0
008 020125s2002 nyua b 001 0 eng
010 $a 2002017010
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020 $a9780743254236$q(pbk.)
035 $a(OCoLC)49902187$z(OCoLC)1020539338$z(OCoLC)1022677978$z(OCoLC)1065031299$z(OCoLC)1078479205$z(OCoLC)1080152918
037 $aa$bjw
042 $apcc
050 00 $aQA273.15$b.G54 2002
060 0 $aWA 950
082 00 $a519.2$221
084 $a70.03$2bcl
084 $a77.33$2bcl
100 1 $aGigerenzer, Gerd.
245 10 $aCalculated risks :$bhow to know when numbers deceive you /$cGerd Gigerenzer.
260 $aNew York :$bSimon & Schuster,$c©2002.
300 $aviii, 310 pages :$billustrations ;$c25 cm
336 $atext$btxt$2rdacontent
337 $aunmediated$bn$2rdamedia
338 $avolume$bnc$2rdacarrier
504 $aIncludes bibliographical references (pages 281-296) and index.
505 00 $gpt. 1.$tDare to know.$g1.$tUncertainty ;$g2.$tThe illusion of certainty ;$g3.$tInnumeracy ;$g4.$tInsight --$gpt. 2.$tUnderstanding uncertainties in the real world.$g5.$tBreast cancer screening ;$g6.$t(Un)informed consent ;$g7.$tAIDS counseling ;$g8.$tWife battering ;$g9.$tExperts on trial ;$g10.$tDNA fingerprinting ;$g11.$tViolent people --$gpt. 3.$tFrom innumeracy to insight.$g12.$tHow innumeracy can be exploited ;$g13.$tFun problems ;$g14.$tTeaching clear thinking.
520 0 $aGigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.
650 0 $aProbabilities$vPopular works.
650 0 $aMathematical statistics$vPopular works.
650 0 $aUncertainty$vPopular works.
650 2 $aProbability.
650 2 $aRisk.
650 2 $aStatistics as Topic.
650 6 $aProbabilités$vOuvrages de vulgarisation.
650 6 $aStatistique mathématique$vOuvrages de vulgarisation.
650 6 $aIncertitude$vOuvrages de vulgarisation.
650 7 $a70.03 methods, techniques and organization of social science research.$0(NL-LeOCL)077601203$2bcl
650 7 $a77.33 judgement, decison making (psychology)$0(NL-LeOCL)080448704$2bcl
650 7 $aMathematical statistics.$2fast$0(OCoLC)fst01012127
650 7 $aProbabilities.$2fast$0(OCoLC)fst01077737
650 7 $aUncertainty.$2fast$0(OCoLC)fst01160832
650 7 $aStatistik$2gnd
650 7 $aAnwendung$2gnd
650 7 $aWahrscheinlichkeit$2gnd
650 7 $aRisikoanalyse$2gnd
650 7 $aEntscheidung bei Unsicherheit$2gnd
650 17 $aStatistieken.$2gtt
650 17 $aRisico's.$2gtt
650 17 $aOnzekerheid.$2gtt
650 17 $aBesluitvorming.$2gtt
655 0 $aPopular works.
655 7 $aStatistics.$2fast$0(OCoLC)fst01423727
655 7 $aPopular works.$2fast$0(OCoLC)fst01423846.
655 7 $aStatistics.$2lcgft
776 08 $iOnline version:$aGigerenzer, Gerd.$tCalculated risks.$dNew York : Simon & Schuster, 2002$w(OCoLC)664427413
856 41 $3Table of contents$uhttp://catdir.loc.gov/catdir/toc/fy037/2002017010.html
856 42 $3Contributor biographical information$uhttp://catdir.loc.gov/catdir/bios/simon054/2002017010.html
856 42 $3Publisher description$uhttp://catdir.loc.gov/catdir/description/simon032/2002017010.html
938 $aBaker and Taylor$bBTCP$n2002017010
938 $aYBP Library Services$bYANK$n1996356
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029 1 $aUNITY$b005485819
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994 $aZ0$bP4A
948 $hNO HOLDINGS IN P4A - 1447 OTHER HOLDINGS