MARC record from Internet Archive

LEADER: 04937cam 2200721 a 4500
001 ocn780480483
003 OCoLC
005 20171108094424.0
008 120703s2012 nyua b 001 0 eng
010 $a 2012027308
040 $aDLC$beng$cDLC$dIG#$dBTCTA$dBDX$dWIM$dOCLCO$dUPZ$dRNC$dIK2$dYDXCP$dJQM$dVP@$dORX$dCDX$dAZZPT$dWAU$dLMR$dYBM$dZAD$dFDA$dKMS$dIDB$dNSB$dHEBIS$dOCLCF$dP4I$dNLGGC$dOCLCO$dZCU$dOCLCQ$dOCLCO$dOCLCQ$dOCLCO$dNZIPP$dTFW
015 $aGBB268032$2bnb
016 7 $a016122975$2Uk
019 $a812978742$a833548906
020 $a9781594204111
020 $a159420411X
020 $a9780143124009$q(pbk.)
020 $a0143124005$q(pbk.)
020 $a9780143125082
020 $a0143125087
035 $a(OCoLC)780480483$z(OCoLC)812978742$z(OCoLC)833548906
042 $apcc
050 00 $aCB158$b.S54 2012
082 00 $a519.5/42$223
096 $aNon-Fiction$bS587s
100 1 $aSilver, Nate,$d1978-
245 14 $aThe signal and the noise :$bwhy so many predictions fail--but some don't /$cNate Silver.
260 $aNew York :$bPenguin Press,$c2012.
300 $a534 pages :$billustrations ;$c25 cm
336 $atext$btxt$2rdacontent
337 $aunmediated$bn$2rdamedia
338 $avolume$bnc$2rdacarrier
504 $aIncludes bibliographical references (pages 459-514) and index.
505 0 $aA catastrophic failure of prediction -- Are you smarter than a television pundit? -- All I care about is W's and L's -- For years you've been telling us that rain is green -- Desperately seeking signal -- How to drown in three feet of water -- Role models -- Less and less and less wrong -- Rage against the machines -- The poker bubble -- If you can't beat 'em-- -- A climate of healthy skepticism -- What you don't know can hurt you.
520 $aThe author has built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and has become a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, he examines the world of prediction.
520 $aHuman beings have to make plans and strategize for the future. As the pace of our lives becomes faster and faster, we have to do so more often and more quickly. But are our predictions any good? Is there hope for improvement? In this book the author examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy, ever-increasing data. Many predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. We are wired to detect a signal, and we mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the prediction paradox: the more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, and the more we are willing to learn from our mistakes, the more we can turn information into knowledge and data into foresight. The author examines both successes and failures to determine what more accurate forecasters have in common. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, he visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. Even when their innovations are modest, we can learn from their methods. How can we train ourselves to think probabilistically, as they do? How can the insights of an eighteenth-century Englishman unlock the twenty-first-century challenges of global warming and terrorism? How can being smarter about the future help us make better decisions in the present?
650 0 $aForecasting.
650 0 $aForecasting$xMethodology.
650 0 $aForecasting$xHistory.
650 0 $aBayesian statistical decision theory.
650 0 $aKnowledge, Theory of.
650 7 $aBayesian statistical decision theory.$2fast$0(OCoLC)fst00829019
650 7 $aForecasting.$2fast$0(OCoLC)fst00931721
650 7 $aForecasting$xMethodology.$2fast$0(OCoLC)fst00931729
650 7 $aKnowledge, Theory of.$2fast$0(OCoLC)fst00988194
650 7 $aBayes-Entscheidungstheorie$2gnd$0(DE-588)4144220-9
650 7 $aPrognose$2gnd$0(DE-588)4047390-9
655 4 $aNonfiction.
655 7 $aHistory.$2fast$0(OCoLC)fst01411628
938 $aBrodart$bBROD$n101433204$c$27.95
938 $aBaker and Taylor$bBTCP$nBK0010948244
938 $aCoutts Information Services$bCOUT$n22836106
938 $aIngram$bINGR$n9781594204111
938 $aYBP Library Services$bYANK$n8753811
029 1 $aCHBIS$b007549943
029 1 $aCHDSB$b006135852
029 1 $aCHSLU$b001069574
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029 1 $aNLGGC$b356083802
029 1 $aNZ1$b14347310
994 $aZ0$bPMR
948 $hNO HOLDINGS IN PMR - 2397 OTHER HOLDINGS