MARC Record from marc_columbia

LEADER: 03272mam a2200373 a 4500
001 2119156
005 20220615210008.0
008 970709s1998 nyua b 001 0 eng
010 $a 97018364
020 $a047197014X
035 $a(OCoLC)ocm37322636
035 $9ANF6932CU
035 $a2119156
040 $aDLC$cDLC$dOrLoB-B
050 00 $aHD30.27$b.F688 1998
082 00 $a338.5/442$221
245 00 $aForecasting with judgment /$cedited by George Wright and Paul Goodwin.
260 $aChichester, UK ;$aNew York, NY :$bWiley,$c1998.
263 $a9801
300 $axvi, 297 pages :$billustrations ;$c24 cm
336 $atext$btxt$2rdacontent
337 $aunmediated$bn$2rdamedia
504 $aIncludes bibliographical references and index.
505 00 $gCh. 1.$tJudgment: Its Role and Value for Strategy /$rSpyros Makridakis and Anil Gaba --$gCh. 2.$tScenario Planning: Scaffolding Disorganized Ideas about the Future /$rKees van der Heijden --$gCh. 3.$tJudgmental Forecasting and the Use of Available Information /$rMarcus O'Connor and Michael Lawrence --$gCh. 4.$tEnhancing Judgmental Sales Forecasting: The Role of Laboratory Research /$rPaul Goodwin --$gCh. 5.$tHeuristics and Biases in Judgmental Forecasting /$rFergus Bolger and Nigel Harvey --$gCh. 6.$tFinancial Forecasting with Judgment /$rDilek Onkal-Atay --$gCh. 7.$tReasoning with Category Knowledge in Probability Forecasting: Typicality and Perceived Variability Effects /$rGlenn J. Browne and Shawn P. Curley --$gCh. 8.$tThe Use of Structured Groups to Improve Judgmental Forecasting /$rGene Rowe --$gCh. 9.$tHow Bad Is Human Judgment? /$rPeter Ayton --
505 80 $gCh. 10.$tIntegration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series Forecasting: Principles from Empirical Research /$rJ. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy.
520 $aAll forecasting involves human judgment and many forecasts are based exclusively on judgment. This book brings together the latest research into the role of judgment in forecasting. It considers questions such as: How good is human judgment? Do judgmental forecasters use information efficiently? What techniques are available to help groups of people to produce better forecasts? What reasoning processes are employed by people when they make judgments about uncertainty?
520 8 $aWhen should judgment be used in combination with statistical methods? The role of judgment in strategic planning, financial forecasting, and sales forecasting is considered from both theoretical and practical perspectives. It will be of interest both to professional forecasters and academics and should stimulate further research into the processes involved in making judgmental forecasts and how these processes can be improved.
650 0 $aBusiness forecasting.$0http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85018299
650 0 $aForecasting.$0http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85050485
650 0 $aJudgment.$0http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85070913
650 0 $aDecision making.$0http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85036199
700 1 $aWright, George,$d1952-$0http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n83328605
700 1 $aGoodwin, Paul.$0http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n91002312
852 00 $boff,bus$hHD30.27$i.F688 1998