| Record ID | marc_columbia/Columbia-extract-20221130-011.mrc:232176378:2670 |
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LEADER: 02670pam a22003374a 4500
001 5397063
005 20221110031041.0
008 041012t20052005njua b 001 0 eng
010 $a 2004061694
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020 $a0691123020 (alk. paper)
035 $a(OCoLC)ocm56825108
035 $a(NNC)5397063
035 $a5397063
040 $aDLC$cDLC$dYDX$dUKM$dBAKER$dOrLoB-B
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050 00 $aJA74.5$b.T38 2005
082 00 $a320/.01/9$222
100 1 $aTetlock, Philip E.$q(Philip Eyrikson),$d1954-$0http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n88627109
245 10 $aExpert political judgment :$bhow good is it? how can we know? /$cPhilip E. Tetlock.
260 $aPrinceton, N.J. :$bPrinceton University Press,$c[2005], ©2005.
300 $axvi, 321 pages :$billustrations ;$c24 cm
336 $atext$btxt$2rdacontent
337 $aunmediated$bn$2rdamedia
504 $aIncludes bibliographical references and index.
505 00 $gCh. 1.$tQuantifying the unquantifiable --$gCh. 2.$tThe ego-deflating challenge of radical skepticism --$gCh. 3.$tKnowing the limits of one's knowledge : foxes have better calibration and discrimination scores than hedgehogs --$gCh. 4.$tHonoring reputational bets : foxes are better Bayesians than hedgehogs --$gCh. 5.$tContemplating counterfactuals : foxes are more willing than hedgehogs to entertain self-subversive scenarios --$gCh. 6.$tThe hedgehogs strike back --$gCh. 7.$tAre we open-minded enough to acknowledge the limits of open-mindedness? --$gCh. 8.$tExploring the limits on objectivity and accountability --$tTechnical appendix /$rPhillip Rescober and Philip E. Tetlock.
520 1 $a"The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts." "Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting."--BOOK JACKET.
650 0 $aPolitical psychology.$0http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85104425
650 0 $aIdeology.$0http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85064155
852 00 $bleh$hJA74.5$i.T38 2005
852 00 $bbar$hJA74.5$i.T38 2005