MARC Record from Library of Congress

LEADER: 02543cam a22003137a 4500
001 2005615308
003 DLC
005 20050113091706.0
007 cr |||||||||||
008 050110s2004 mau sb 000 0 eng
010 $a 2005615308
040 $aDLC$cDLC
050 00 $aHB1
100 1 $aAguiar, Mark.
245 10 $aEmerging market business cycles$h[electronic resource] :$bthe cycle is the trend /$cMark Aguiar, Gita Gopinath.
260 $aCambridge, MA :$bNational Bureau of Economic Research,$cc2004.
490 1 $aNBER working paper series ;$vworking paper 10734
538 $aSystem requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.
538 $aMode of access: World Wide Web.
500 $aTitle from PDF file as viewed on 1/10/2005.
530 $aAlso available in print.
504 $aIncludes bibliographical references.
520 3 $a"Business Cycles in emerging markets are characterized by strongly counter-cyclical current accounts, consumption volatility that exceeds income volatility and dramatic sudden stops' in capital inflows. These features contrast with developed small open economies and highlight the uniqueness of emerging markets. Nevertheless, we show that both qualitatively and quantitatively a standard dynamic stochastic small open economy model can account for the behavior of both types of markets. Motivated by the observed frequent policy regime switches in emerging markets, our underlying premise is that these economies are subject to substantial volatility in the trend growth rate relative to developed markets. Consequently, shocks to trend growth are the primary source of fluctuations in these markets rather than transitory fluctuations around a stable trend. When the parameters of the income process are structurally estimated using GMM for each type of economy, we find that the observed predominance of permanent shocks relative to transitory shocks for emerging markets and the reverse for developed markets explains differences in key features of their business cycles. Lastly, employing a VAR methodology to identify permanent shocks we find further support for the notion that the cycle is the trend' for emerging economies"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
650 0 $aBusiness cycles.
650 0 $aCapital movements.
700 1 $aGopinath, Gita,$d1971-
710 2 $aNational Bureau of Economic Research.
830 0 $aWorking paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research : Online) ;$vworking paper no. 10734.
856 40 $uhttp://papers.nber.org/papers/W10734