MARC Record from Library of Congress

LEADER: 02215cam a22003377a 4500
001 2005615913
003 DLC
005 20060814152416.0
007 cr |||||||||||
008 050128s2003 mou sb f000 0 eng
010 $a 2005615913
040 $aDLC$cDLC
043 $an-us---
050 00 $aHB1
100 1 $aGarrett, Thomas A.$q(Thomas Andrew)
245 10 $aDoes consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?$h[electronic resource] /$cThomas A. Garrett, Rubén Hernández-Murillo, and Michael T. Owyang.
260 $a[St. Louis, Mo.] :$bFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis,$c[2003]
490 1 $aWorking paper ;$v2003-003C
538 $aSystem requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.
538 $aMode of access: World Wide Web.
500 $aTitle from PDF file as viewed on 1/28/2005.
530 $aAlso available in print.
504 $aIncludes bibliographical references.
520 3 $a"This paper tests the ability of consumer sentiment to predict retail spending at the state level. The results here suggest that, although there is a significant relationship between sentiment measures and retail sales growth in several states, consumer sentiment exhibits only modest predictive power for future changes of retail spending. Measures of consumer sentiment, however, contain additional explanatory power aside from the information available in other indicators. We also find that by restricting our attention to fluctuations in retail sales that occur at the business cycle frequency we can uncover a significant relationship between consumer sentiment and retail sales growth in many additional states. In light of these results, we conclude that the practical value of sentiment indices to forecast consumer spending at the state level is, at best, limited"--Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis web site.
650 0 $aConsumer confidence$zUnited States$xStates.
650 0 $aRetail trade$zUnited States$xStates.
700 1 $aHernández-Murillo, Rubén.
700 1 $aOwyang, Michael T.
710 2 $aFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
830 0 $aWorking paper (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis : Online) ;$v2003-003C.
856 40 $uhttp://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/2003-003/