MARC Record from Library of Congress

LEADER: 04847cam a2200421 a 4500
001 2009351678
003 DLC
005 20090311092046.0
008 090123s2008 sa ab b 000 0 eng d
010 $a 2009351678
020 $a9781920114480 (pbk.)
020 $a1920114483 (pbk.)
035 $a(OCoLC)ocn298322966
040 $aAWC$cAWC$dAWC$dDLC
042 $alccopycat
043 $af-sa---
050 00 $aJZ1773$b.A918 2008
100 1 $aCilliers, Jakkie.
245 10 $aAfrica in the new world :$bhow global and domestic developments will impact by 2025 /$cJakkie Cilliers.
260 $aTshwane (Pretoria), South Africa :$bInstitute for Security Studies,$c2008.
300 $avii, 150 p. :$bcol. ill., col. maps ;$c21 cm.
440 0 $aISS monograph series ;$vno. 151
500 $a"The research on which this paper is based was made possible by the generous support of the Royal Danish Government, through their embassy in Pretoria, South Africa." -- P. [iv] of cover.
500 $a"The world is currently experiencing a massive change in the balance of power as influence and industry shift from the West to the East. Whilst African developments will not become a substantive driver and factor in global scenarios in the next two or three decades, the importance of the region will steadily increase. This monograph looks at key shifts that will determine the future of Africa in the world. The first four 'megatrends' constitute those external developments that will impact upon Africa and over which it has little control, namely the global shift of power from West to East, the impact of climate change, globalisation, and state power and interdependence and complexity. The second set of 'African variables' reflects domestic developments: Africa's population dynamics, trade, democratisation/ governance, and peace and stability. Collectively the two sets of factors provide a glimpse of the possible emerging futures for the continent. Africa's future will be determined by its leadership and the choices that are made by Africa's elected and unelected Big Men -- not by the size of their ideas, but in the example they set in the daily decisions about contacts, conflict of interest and democratic accountability." -- P. [iv] of cover.
504 $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 132-150).
505 0 $a1. Introduction -- 2. Megatrend One. The global shift of power from West to East -- The (relative) decline of the West -- The rise of the rest. -- 3. Megatrend Two. The impact of climate change -- The limits of growth -- Impact on Africa -- Interconnected challenges. -- 4. Megatrend Three. Globalisation and state power -- Distributed power -- A new global power -- A return of state power? -- Developed versus developing countries -- Ideology and Africa -- Civil society -- Globalisation and geopolitics. -- 5. Megatrend Four. Interdependence and complexity -- African connections -- Implications for governance -- A global deficit in management? -- Towards a global order -- Global inequality on the decline? -- A concentration of riches. -- 6. African variable one. A growing and dynamic population -- Africa's demographic transition -- Africa's youth bulge -- HIV/AIDS -- Urbanisation, poverty and insecurity -- Skills loss. -- 7. African variable two. Trade, aid and growth -- Commodities-based economic growth -- Oil, energy and growth -- Aid. -- 8. African variable three. Democratisation and governance -- Progress over several decades -- Democratisation for Africans? -- Corruption. -- 9. African variable four. Peace and stability -- Impact of democracy and external peacemaking -- African leadership -- Alarmism and despondency -- Policing Africa -- Global insecurity on the rise? -- 10. The importance of regional integration for African development. -- Political solidarity versus economic reality -- North Africa and the Horn -- A sub-regional imperative. -- 11. Conclusion. -- Bad news sells -- Key global trends -- China and Africa -- India and the vision of a developmental state -- Global threats to prosperity -- Implications for Africa -- The US and the UN -- Finally.
530 $aFull text on the ISS website.
651 0 $aAfrica$xForeign relations.
650 0 $aBalance of power$xForecasting.
650 0 $aClimatic changes$zAfrica.
650 0 $aGlobalization$zAfrica.
650 0 $aSustainable development$zAfrica.
650 0 $aDemocracy$zAfrica.
651 0 $aAfrica$xEconomic conditions$y21st century.
651 0 $aAfrica$xPolitics and government$y21st century.
651 0 $aAfrica$xSocial conditions$y21st century.
710 2 $aInstitute for Security Studies (South Africa)
856 41 $zCLICK HERE TO VIEW :$uhttp://www.iss.org.za/dynamic/administration/file_manager/file_links/MONO151FULL.PDF?link_id=3&slink_id=6762&link_type=12&slink_type=13&tmpl_id=3