MARC Record from Library of Congress

LEADER: 04014cam a22005174a 4500
001 2011506348
003 DLC
005 20130612080055.0
008 120208s2011 pau b f000 0 eng c
010 $a 2011506348
020 $a9781584875062
020 $a1584875062
035 $a(OCoLC)ocn758000179
040 $aAWC$cAWC$dFUG$dAFQ$dDEBBG$dDLC
042 $apcc
043 $af-ua---$an-us---
050 00 $aDT107.87$b.A3895 2011
084 $a8$2ssgn
100 1 $aAftandilian, Gregory L.
245 10 $aPresidential succession scenarios in Egypt and their impact on U.S.-Egyptian strategic relations /$cGregory Aftandilian.
246 3 $aPresidential succession scenarios in Egypt and their impact on US-Egyptian strategic relations
246 3 $aPresidential succession scenarios in Egypt and their impact on United States-Egyptian strategic relations
260 $aCarlisle, PA :$bStrategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College,$c2011
300 $ax, 48 p. ;$c23 cm.
490 0 $aExternal Research Associates Program monographs
500 $a"September 2011."
500 $a"External Research Associates Program monograph."
504 $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 43-48).
520 $aAlthough this monograph was written before the pro-democracy demonstrations in Egypt in January 2011, it examines the important question as to who might succeed President Hosni Mubarak by analyzing several possible scenarios and what they would mean for U.S. strategic relations with Egypt. The monograph first describes the importance of Egypt in the Middle East region and gives an overview of the U.S.-Egyptian strategic relationship. It then examines the power structure in Egypt to include the presidency, the military, and the ruling party. The monograph next explores various succession scenarios. Although some of the scenarios outlined in this monograph are no longer viable--for example, President Mubarak is now on trial for complicity in the deaths of protesters during the uprising that resulted in his ouster from power--other scenarios remain plausible, particularly given what we see as the more prominent role of the Egyptian military in this fluid political situation. In addition, some of the possible presidential successors that the author mentions have now risen to higher positions in the Egyptian government. The author also discusses the sensitive issue of the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's most organized opposition group that is opposed to many U.S. policies. He examines a scenario of a Muslim Brotherhood-dominated government, but notes that this is unlikely to occur unless both the Brotherhood and the Egyptian military split apart.
505 0 $aSummary -- Introduction -- The power structure in Egypt -- Constitutional rules, changes and procedures -- Succession scenarios through legal mechanisms -- Extra-legal scenario successions -- How would these scenarios impact U.S.-Egyptian relations? -- Legal succession scenarios -- Extra-legal scenarios -- Policy recommendations. How should U.S. officials conduct themselves in these scenarios?
530 $aAlso available online in PDF format from Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) web site. Adobe Acrobat Reader required.
610 10 $aEgypt.$bPresident (1981-2011 : Mubārak)
610 20 $aJamʻīyat al-Ikhwān al-Muslimīn (Egypt)
650 0 $aPresidents$xSuccession$zEgypt.
650 0 $aConstitutional law$zEgypt.
650 0 $aPolitical parties$zEgypt.
650 0 $aPolitical leadership$zEgypt.
650 0 $aCivil-military relations$zEgypt.
650 0 $aPolitical campaigns$zEgypt.
650 0 $aElections$zEgypt.
651 0 $aEgypt$xPolitics and government$xForecasting.
651 0 $aUnited States$xForeign relations$zEgypt.
651 0 $aEgypt$xForeign relations$zUnited States.
651 0 $aEgypt$xStrategic aspects.
710 2 $aArmy War College (U.S.).$bStrategic Studies Institute.
856 41 $uhttp://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB1084.pdf