MARC Record from marc_nuls

LEADER: 04008cam 2200433 i 4500
001 9925218408801661
005 20151204053750.1
008 150506s2015 nyua b 001 0 eng
010 $a 2015007310
019 $a921932489
020 $a9780804136693 (hardcover)
020 $a0804136696 (hardcover)
020 $z9780804136709 (ebook)
020 $a9780804136716 (paperback)
020 $a0804136718 (paperback)
024 8 $a40025332158
035 $a99965651666
035 $a(OCoLC)898909721$z(OCoLC)921932489
035 $a(OCoLC)ocn898909721
040 $aDLC$beng$erda$cDLC$dYDXCP$dBTCTA$dBDX$dOCLCF$dON8$dTUU$dCDX$dIK2$dUAF$dILI$dMLY$dOQX$dKBC$dOCLCO$dYUS$dOVY
042 $apcc
050 00 $aHB3730$b.T47 2015
082 00 $a303.49$223
100 1 $aTetlock, Philip E.$q(Philip Eyrikson),$d1954-$eauthor.
245 10 $aSuperforecasting :$bthe art and science of prediction /$cPhilip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner.
250 $aFirst edition.
264 1 $aNew York :$bCrown Publishers,$c[2015]
300 $a340 pages :$billustrations ;$c25 cm
336 $atext$2rdacontent
337 $aunmediated$2rdamedia
338 $avolume$2rdacarrier
520 $a"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"--$cProvided by publisher.
504 $aIncludes bibliographical references (pages 291-328) and index.
505 0 $aAn optimistic skeptic -- Illusions of knowledge -- Keeping score -- Superforecasters -- Supersmart? -- Superquants? -- Supernewsjunkies? -- Perpetual beta -- Superteams -- The leader's dilemma -- Are they really so super? -- What's next? -- Epilogue -- An invitation -- Appendix: Ten commandments for aspiring superforecasters.
650 0 $aEconomic forecasting.
650 0 $aForecasting.
700 1 $aGardner, Dan,$d1968-
947 $hCIRCSTACKS$r31786102943310
980 $a99965651666