MARC Record from Scriblio

LEADER: 02164cam 22003137a 4500
001 2005615510
003 DLC
005 20051201101033.0
007 cr |||||||||||
008 050114s2004 mau sb 000 0 eng
010 $a 2005615510
040 $aDLC$cDLC$dDLC
050 00 $aHB1
100 1 $aSargent, Thomas J.
245 10 $aShocks and government beliefs$h[electronic resource] :$bthe rise and fall of American inflation /$cThomas Sargent, Noah Williams, Tao Zha.
260 $aCambridge, MA :$bNational Bureau of Economic Research,$cc2004.
490 1 $aNBER working paper series ;$vworking paper 10764
538 $aSystem requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.
538 $aMode of access: World Wide Web.
500 $aTitle from PDF file as viewed on 1/14/2005.
530 $aAlso available in print.
504 $aIncludes bibliographical references.
520 3 $a"We use a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate a model that allows temporary gaps between a true expectational Phillips curve and the monetary authority's approximating non-expectational Phillips curve. A dynamic programming problem implies that the monetary authority's inflation target evolves as its estimated Phillips curve moves. Our estimates attribute the rise and fall of post WWII inflation in the US to an intricate interaction between the monetary authority's beliefs and economic shocks. Shocks in the 1970s altered the monetary authority's estimates and made it misperceive the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. That caused a sharp rise in inflation in the 1970s. Our estimates say that policymakers updated their beliefs continuously. By the 1980s, their beliefs about the Phillips curve had changed enough to account for Volcker's conquest of US inflation in the early 1980s"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
650 0 $aInflation (Finance)
700 1 $aWilliams, Noah$q(Noah M.)
700 1 $aZha, Tao
710 2 $aNational Bureau of Economic Research.
830 0 $aWorking paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research : Online) ;$vworking paper no. 10764.
856 40 $uhttp://papers.nber.org/papers/W10764