MARC Record from Scriblio

LEADER: 01944cam 22003257a 4500
001 2005615607
003 DLC
005 20050118153609.0
007 cr |||||||||||
008 050118s2005 mau sb 000 0 eng
010 $a 2005615607
040 $aDLC$cDLC
050 00 $aHB1
100 1 $aChinn, Menzie David.
245 14 $aThe predictive content of energy futures$h[electronic resource] :$ban update on petroleum, natural gas, heating oil, and gasoline /$cMenzie D. Chinn, Michael LeBlanc, Olivier Coibion.
260 $aCambridge, MA :$bNational Bureau of Economic Research,$cc2005.
490 1 $aNBER working paper series ;$vworking paper 11033
538 $aSystem requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.
538 $aMode of access: World Wide Web.
500 $aTitle from PDF file as viewed on 1/18/2005.
530 $aAlso available in print.
504 $aIncludes bibliographical references.
520 3 $a"This paper examines the relationship between spot and futures prices for energy commodities (crude oil, gasoline, heating oil markets and natural gas). In particular, we examine whether futures prices are (1) an unbiased and/or (2) accurate predictor of subsequent spot prices. We find that while futures prices are unbiased predictors of future spot prices, with the exception those in the natural gas markets at the 3-month horizon. Futures do not appear to well predict subsequent movements in energy commodity prices, although they slightly outperform time series models"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
650 0 $aPetroleum products$xPrices$xMathematical models.
650 0 $aFutures market$xMathematical models.
700 1 $aLeBlanc, Michael R.
700 1 $aCoibion, Olivier.
710 2 $aNational Bureau of Economic Research.
830 0 $aWorking paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research : Online) ;$vworking paper no. 11033.
856 40 $uhttp://papers.nber.org/papers/W11033