Temperature, aggregate risk, and expected returns

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Temperature, aggregate risk, and expected ret ...
Ravi Bansal
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Last edited by MARC Bot
October 17, 2020 | History

Temperature, aggregate risk, and expected returns

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"In this paper we show that temperature is an aggregate risk factor that adversely affects economic growth. Our argument is based on evidence from global capital markets which shows that the covariance between country equity returns and temperature (i.e., temperature betas) contains sharp information about the cross-country risk premium; countries closer to the Equator carry a positive temperature risk premium which decreases as one moves farther away from the Equator. The differences in temperature betas mirror exposures to aggregate growth rate risk, which we show is negatively impacted by temperature shocks. That is, portfolios with larger exposure to risk from aggregate growth also have larger temperature betas; hence, a larger risk premium. We further show that increases in global temperature have a negative impact on economic growth in countries closer to the Equator, while its impact is negligible in countries at high latitudes. Consistent with this evidence, we show that there is a parallel between a country's distance to the Equator and the economy's dependence on climate sensitive sectors; in countries closer to the Equator industries with a high exposure to temperature are more prevalent. We provide a Long-Run Risks based model that quantitatively accounts for cross-sectional differences in temperature betas, its link to expected returns, and the connection between aggregate growth and temperature risks"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

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Language
English

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Cover of: Temperature, aggregate risk, and expected returns
Temperature, aggregate risk, and expected returns
2011, National Bureau of Economic Research
Electronic resource in English

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Book Details


Edition Notes

Title from PDF file as viewed on 1/12/2012.

Includes bibliographical references.

Also available in print.

System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Mode of access: World Wide Web.

Published in
Cambridge, MA
Series
NBER working paper series -- working paper 17575, Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research : Online) -- working paper no. 17575.

Classifications

Library of Congress
HB1

The Physical Object

Format
Electronic resource

ID Numbers

Open Library
OL25173161M
LCCN
2011657477

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October 17, 2020 Edited by MARC Bot import existing book
January 18, 2012 Created by LC Bot import new book