An edition of Noise (2021)

Noise

A Flaw in Human Judgment

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  • 2.8 (4 ratings) ·
  • 65 Want to read
  • 7 Currently reading
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Last edited by Tom Morris
September 7, 2023 | History
An edition of Noise (2021)

Noise

A Flaw in Human Judgment

  • 2.8 (4 ratings) ·
  • 65 Want to read
  • 7 Currently reading
  • 8 Have read

A revolutionary exploration of how noise contributes to bad judgments, and how to control both noise and cognitive bias.

Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients - or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants - or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.

In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions.

Publish Date
Language
English
Pages
454

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Edition Availability
Cover of: Ruido
Ruido: Un fallo en el juicio humano
Mar 09, 2023, DEBOLSILLO
mass market paperback
Cover of: Ruido
Ruido: Un fallo en el juicio humano
Mar 09, 2023, DEBOLSILLO
mass market paperback
Cover of: Noise
Noise: Was unsere Entscheidungen verzerrt – und wie wir sie verbessern können
2023, Pantheon Verlag
Paperback in German - 1. Auflage
Cover of: Noise
Noise
2022, HarperCollins Publishers Limited
in English
Cover of: Noise
Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
May 31, 2022, Little, Brown and Company
paperback
Cover of: Noise
Noise
2022, HarperCollins Publishers Limited
in English
Cover of: Noise
Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgement
2022, HarperCollins Publishers Limited
in English
Cover of: Noise
Noise
2021, HarperCollins Publishers Limited
in English
Cover of: Noise
Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
May 18, 2021, Little, Brown Spark
hardcover in English
Cover of: Noise
Noise: Was unsere Entscheidungen verzerrt – und wie wir sie verbessern können
May 17, 2021, Siedler Verlag
hardcover
Cover of: Noise
Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
May 18, 2021, Little, Brown Spark
hardcover
Cover of: Noise
Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
May 2021, Little, Brown Spark
Hardcover in English - First edition
Cover of: Noise
Noise
2021, HarperCollins Publishers Limited
in English
Cover of: Noise
Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
2021, Little Brown & Company
in English
Cover of: Noise
Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
2021, HarperCollins Publishers Limited, HARPER COLLINS
in English
Cover of: Noise
Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
2021, Unknown Publisher
in English
Cover of: Noise
Noise
2021, HarperCollins Publishers Limited
in English
Cover of: Noise
Noise: Was unsere Entscheidungen verzerrt – und wie wir sie verbessern können
2021-05-17, Siedler
Hardcover in German
Cover of: Noise
Noise
2021, HarperCollins Publishers Limited
in English
Cover of: Ruido : un Fallo en el Juicio Humano / Noise
Ruido : un Fallo en el Juicio Humano / Noise: a Flaw in Human Judgment
2021, Random House Espanol
in Spanish
Cover of: Noise
Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
May 18, 2021, Little, Brown Spark
hardcover

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Book Details


First Sentence

"Imagine that four teams of friends have gone to a shooting arcade."

Table of Contents

Contents
Page vii
Introduction: Two Kinds of Error
Page 3
I. Finding Noise
Page 11
1. Crime and Noisy Punishment
Page 13
2. A Noisy Subsystem
Page 23
3. Singular Decisions
Page 34
II. Your Mind Is a Measuring Instrument
Page 39
4. Matters of Judgment
Page 43
5. Measuring Error
Page 55
6. The Analysis of Noise
Page 69
7. Occasion Noise
Page 79
8. How Groups Amplify Noise
Page 94
III. Noise in Predictive Judgments
Page 107
9. Judgments and Models
Page 111
10. Noiseless Rules
Page 123
11. Objective Ignorance
Page 137
12. The Valley of the Normal
Page 148
IV. How Noise Happens
Page 159
13. Heuristics, Biases, and Noise
Page 161
14. The Matching Operation
Page 176
15. Scales
Page 187
16. Patterns
Page 200
17. The Sources of NOise
Page 210
V. Improving Judgments
Page 221
18. Better Judges for Better Judgments
Page 225
19. Debiasing and Decision Hygiene
Page 236
20. Sequencing Information in Forensic Science
Page 245
21. Selection and Aggregation in Forecasting
Page 259
22. Guidelines in Medicine
Page 273
23. Defining the Scale in Performance Ratings
Page 287
24. Structure in Hiring
Page 300
25. The Mediating Assessments Protocol
Page 312
VI. Optimal Noise
Page 325
26. TheCosts of Noise Reduction
Page 329
27. Dignity
Page 339
28. Rules of Standards?
Page 350
Review and Conclusion: Taking Noise Seriously
Page 361
Epilogue: A Less Noisy World
Page 377
A. How to Conduct a Noise Audit
Page 379
B. A Checklist for a Decision Observer
Page 387
C. Correcting Predictions
Page 391
Acknowledgments
Page 397
Notes
Page 399
Index
Page 439

Edition Notes

Bibliographical footnotes.

Published in
New York, USA
Copyright Date
2021

The Physical Object

Format
hardcover
Pagination
xi, 450 p. illus. ;
Number of pages
454
Weight
674 grams

ID Numbers

Open Library
OL26554445M

Work Description

From the best-selling author of Thinking, Fast and Slow, the co-author of Nudge, and the author of You Are About to Make a Terrible Mistake! comes Noise, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments, and how to control both noise and cognitive bias.

Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients - or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants - or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.

In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions.

Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times best sellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment - and what we can do about it.

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