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"The checkered history of predicting the future--e.g., "Man will never fly"--Has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of futures and design adaptive strategies to be robust across them. Using sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods apply to LTPA and a wide range of decisionmaking under conditions of deep uncertainty."
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Previews available in: English
Edition | Availability |
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1
Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis
January 25, 2004, RAND Corporation
Paperback
in English
0833032755 9780833032751
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2
Shaping the next one hundred years: new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis and bibliography
2003, RAND
in English
0833032755 9780833032751
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Book Details
Edition Notes
Also available in electronic form via the RAND Corporation Web site.
"MR-1626."
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