Real-time price discovery in stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets

Real-time price discovery in stock, bond, and ...
Torben G. Andersen
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Last edited by MARC Bot
December 13, 2020 | History

Real-time price discovery in stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets

"We characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of high-frequency futures returns for each of the markets. We find that news surprises produce conditional mean jumps; hence high-frequency stock, bond and exchange rate dynamics are linked to fundamentals. The details of the linkages are particularly intriguing as regards equity markets. We show that equity markets react differently to the same news depending on the state of the U.S. economy, with bad news having a positive impact during expansions and the traditionally-expected negative impact during recessions. We rationalize this by temporal variation in the competing "cash flow" and "discount rate" effects for equity valuation. This finding also helps explain the apparent time-varying correlation between stock and bond returns, and the relatively small equity market news announcement effect when averaged across expansions and recessions. Hence, while our results confirm previous unconditional rankings suggesting that bond markets almost uniformly react most strongly to macroeconomic news, followed by foreign exchange and then equity markets, importantly when conditioning on the state of the economy the foreign exchange and equity markets appear equally responsive. Lastly, relying on the pronounced heteroskedasticity in the new high-frequency data, we also document important contemporaneous linkages across all markets and countries over-and-above the direct news announcement effects"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

Publish Date
Language
English

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Edition Availability
Cover of: Real-time price discovery in stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets
Real-time price discovery in stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets
2005, National Bureau of Economic Research
Electronic resource in English

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Book Details


Edition Notes

Includes bibliographical references.
Title from PDF file as viewed on 7/27/2005.
Also available in print.
System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.
Mode of access: World Wide Web.

Published in
Cambridge, MA
Series
NBER working paper series ;, working paper 11312, Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research : Online) ;, working paper no. 11312.

Classifications

Library of Congress
HB1

The Physical Object

Format
Electronic resource

ID Numbers

Open Library
OL3478444M
LCCN
2005618475

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