Forecasting with small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities

Forecasting with small macroeconomic VARs in ...
Todd E. Clark, Todd E. Clark
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Last edited by MARC Bot
December 17, 2020 | History

Forecasting with small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities

Small-scale VARs have come to be widely used in macroeconomics, for purposes ranging from forecasting output, prices, and interest rates to modeling expectations formation in theoretical models. However, a body of recent work suggests such VAR models may be prone to instabilities. In the face of such instabilities, a variety of estimation or forecasting methods might be used to improve the accuracy of forecasts from a VAR. These methods include using different approaches to lag selection, observation windows for estimation, (over-) differencing, intercept correction, stochastically time--varying parameters, break dating, discounted least squares, Bayesian shrinkage, detrending of inflation and interest rates, and model averaging. Focusing on simple models of U.S. output, prices, and interest rates, this paper compares the effectiveness of such methods. Our goal is to identify those approaches that, in real time, yield the most accurate forecasts of these variables. We use forecasts from simple univariate time series models, the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Federal Reserve Board's Greenbook as benchmarks

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Cover of: Forecasting with small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities
Forecasting with small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities
2006, Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
electronic resource / in English

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Book Details


Edition Notes

Title from PDF file (viewed on Sept. 27, 2006).

"June 2006."

Includes bibliographical references.

Also available in print.

System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Mode of access: World Wide Web.

Published in
Kansas City [Mo.]
Series
RWP -- 06-09

Classifications

Library of Congress
HB1

The Physical Object

Format
[electronic resource] /

ID Numbers

Open Library
OL31759954M
LCCN
2006619969

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