Forecasting and estimating multiple change-point models with an unknown number of change points

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Forecasting and estimating multiple change-po ...
Gary Koop
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December 13, 2020 | History

Forecasting and estimating multiple change-point models with an unknown number of change points

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"This paper develops a new approach to change-point modeling that allows for an unknown number of change points in the observed sample. Our model assumes that regime durations have a Poisson distribution. The model approximately nests the two most common approaches: the time-varying parameter model with a change point every period and the change-point model with a small number of regimes. We focus on the construction of reasonable hierarchical priors both for regime durations and for the parameters that characterize each regime. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo posterior sampler is constructed to estimate a change-point model for conditional means and variances. We find that our techniques work well in an empirical exercise involving U.S. inflation and GDP growth. Empirical results suggest that the number of change points is larger than previously estimated in these series and the implied model is similar to a time-varying parameter model with stochastic volatility"--Federal Reserve Bank of New York web site.

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Language
English

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Book Details


Edition Notes

Includes bibliographical references.
Title from PDF file as viewed on 1/11/2005.
Also available in print.
System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.
Mode of access: World Wide Web.

Published in
[New York, N.Y.]
Series
Staff reports ;, no. 196, Staff reports (Federal Reserve Bank of New York : Online) ;, no. 196.

Classifications

Library of Congress
HB1

The Physical Object

Format
Electronic resource

ID Numbers

Open Library
OL3475887M
LCCN
2005615319

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December 13, 2020 Edited by MARC Bot import existing book
April 17, 2010 Edited by WorkBot update details
December 10, 2009 Created by WorkBot add works page