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"Prediction Markets, sometimes referred to as "information markets", "idea futures" or "event futures", are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoffs are tied to a future event, thereby yielding prices that can be interpreted as market-aggregated forecasts. This article summarizes the recent literature on prediction markets, highlighting both theoretical contributions that emphasize the possibility that these markets efficiently aggregate disperse information, and the lessons from empirical applications which show that market-generated forecasts typically outperform most moderately sophisticated benchmarks. Along the way, we highlight areas ripe for future research"--Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit web site.
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ForecastingShowing 2 featured editions. View all 2 editions?
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Edition Notes
Title from PDF file as viewed on 3/2/2006.
Includes bibliographical references.
Also available in print.
System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.
Mode of access: World Wide Web.
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Feedback?December 3, 2010 | Edited by Open Library Bot | Added subjects from MARC records. |
December 10, 2009 | Created by WorkBot | add works page |