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"We distinguish between three different ways of using real-time data to estimate forecasting equations and argue that the most popular approach should generally be avoided. The point is illustrated with a model that uses monthly industrial production, employment, and retail sales data to predict real GDP growth. When the model is estimated using our preferred method, its out-of-sample forecasting performance is superior to that obtained using conventional estimation and compares favorably with that of the Blue-Chip consensus"--Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas web site.
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Subjects
Economic forecastingEdition | Availability |
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The use and abuse of "real-time" data in economic forecasting
2000, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Electronic resource
in English
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Book Details
Edition Notes
Also available in print.
Includes bibliographical references.
Title from PDF file as viewed on 1/27/2005.
System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.
Mode of access: World Wide Web.
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