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"This paper develops a general equilibrium model of fertility and human capital investment under uncertainty. Uncertainty exists in the form of a probability that a young adult does not survive to old age. Parents maximize expected utility arising from own consumption, their fertility, and the discounted utility of future generations. There exists a precautionary demand for children. Young adult mortality is negatively related to the average human capital of young adults. Therefore, rising human capital leads to falling mortality, which eventually induces a demographic transition and an acceleration in human capital investment. The model can fit data on world and country populations, per capita incomes, age at entry into the labor force, total fertility rates, life expectancy, conditional life expectancy, and infant mortality. JEL classification: O0, O57, O10, N10"--Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta web site.
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Human capital and economic development
2004, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
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in English
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Human capital and economic development
2002, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Electronic resource
in English
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Includes bibliographical references.
Title from PDF file as viewed on 3/14/2005.
Also available in print.
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Mode of access: World Wide Web.
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"This paper develops a general equilibrium model of fertility and human capital investment with young adult mortality. Parents maximize expected utility producing a precautionary demand for children. Because young adult mortality is negatively related to average young adult human capital, human capital accumulation lowers mortality, inducing a demographic transition and an industrial revolution. Data confirm the model prediction that young adult mortality affects human capital investments. The model prediction of a positive relationship between infant mortality and young adult mortality is confirmed. Further, the data indicate a negative relationship between total factor productivity growth and accumulation of schooling. The model fits the data on world and country populations, per capita incomes, age at entry into the labor force, total fertility rates, infant mortality, life expectancy, and conditional life expectancy"--Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta web site.
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