The fundamentals of commodity futures returns

The fundamentals of commodity futures returns
Gary Gorton, Gary Gorton
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Last edited by WorkBot
December 15, 2009 | History

The fundamentals of commodity futures returns

Commodity futures risk premiums vary across commodities and over time depending on the level of physical inventories, as predicted by the Theory of Storage. Using a comprehensive dataset on 31 commodity futures and physical inventories between 1969 and 2006, we show that the convenience yield is a decreasing, non-linear relationship of inventories. Price measures, such as the futures basis, prior futures returns, and spot returns reflect the state of inventories and are informative about commodity futures risk premiums. The excess returns to Spot and Futures Momentum and Backwardation strategies stem in part from the selection of commodities when inventories are low. Positions of futures markets participants are correlated with prices and inventory signals, but we reject the Keynesian "hedging pressure" hypothesis that these positions are an important determinant of risk premiums.

Publish Date
Language
English
Pages
45

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Edition Availability
Cover of: The fundamentals of commodity futures returns
The fundamentals of commodity futures returns
2007, National Bureau of Economic Research
electronic resource / in English
Cover of: The fundamentals of commodity futures returns
The fundamentals of commodity futures returns
2007, National Bureau of Economic Research
in English

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Book Details


Edition Notes

"July 2007."

Includes bibliographical references (p. 43-45).

Also available in PDF from the NBER world wide web site (www.nber.org).

Published in
Cambridge, Mass
Series
NBER working paper series -- no. 13249., Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) -- working paper no. 13249.

The Physical Object

Pagination
45, [16] p. :
Number of pages
45

ID Numbers

Open Library
OL17635148M
OCLC/WorldCat
165248217

Source records

Oregon Libraries MARC record

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December 15, 2009 Edited by WorkBot link works
April 25, 2009 Edited by ImportBot add OCLC number
September 29, 2008 Created by ImportBot Imported from Oregon Libraries MARC record